How Marketing Mix Modelling Helped an Australian University Increase Student Registrations Amid Seasonal Challenges

Introduction

In Australia’s competitive higher education sector, universities face significant challenges in attracting and retaining students. For one prominent Australian university, the key performance indicators (KPIs) were clear: drive both offline and online student registrations across four annual intakes. However, the institution faced several hurdles, including seasonal spikes in demand, fierce competition, and shifting student preferences toward flexible online learning.

More Than Data’s high-resolution marketing mix modelling (MMM) provided actionable insights to optimize media spend, attribute impact accurately, and navigate seasonal fluctuations—ultimately driving record student enrolments. This case study explores how data-driven decision-making transformed the university’s marketing strategy, enabling it to stand out in a crowded market while efficiently allocating budgets across Above-the-Line (ATL) and Below-the-Line (BTL) channels.

Challenges Faced by the University

Intense Competition in Student Acquisition

Unlike other industries where customers can engage with multiple brands, student registrations are exclusive—once a student enrols in a competing university, they’re lost to the client. This exclusivity created several challenges:

• Media campaigns had to outperform rival institutions in terms of messaging, timing, and channel selection.
  
• Timing was crucial—launching campaigns too late meant losing potential students to competitors who had already captured their attention.
  
• Brand positioning needed to be distinct, as many universities offered similar courses and incentives.

Significant Seasonal Patterns in Registrations

The university’s KPI data showed four major spikes per year, aligning with semester intakes, followed by prolonged periods of low registrations. This seasonality posed unique challenges for MMM:

• Separating organic registrations from media-driven ones—without over- or under-attributing success to marketing efforts.
  
• Avoiding budget wastage during off-peak periods while ensuring sufficient investment before enrolment windows.
  
• Predicting demand surges accurately to allocate resources effectively.

Media Budget Allocation & Planning Ahead of Peaks

Since campaigns had to run 6+ months before semester starts, the university needed to:

• Anticipate competitor moves (who also leveraged seasonality in their planning).
  
• Balance media spend—overspending led to waste, while underspending risked losing students to rivals.
  
• Optimize channel mix—ATL for long-term brand building and BTL for short-term conversions.

Shifting Student Preferences & Teaching Resource Constraints

Several trends emerged that impacted enrolment numbers:

• Declining demand for offline courses as students increasingly preferred flexible online learning options.
  
• Teaching staff shortages due to budget cuts, reducing the availability of certain courses.
  
• Fewer international students due to political uncertainty around visa policies, a key revenue stream for Australian universities.

How More Than Data’s Marketing Mix Modelling Delivered Results

Granular Campaign Measurement & Media Optimization

More Than Data’s high-resolution MMM provided:

• Exact impact quantification for each campaign, helping the media agency refine strategies in real time.
  
• Channel-specific insights, revealing which platforms (e.g., social media, search ads, TV) drove the most conversions.
  
• Budget reallocation recommendations, ensuring spend was directed toward the highest-performing initiatives.

Turning Seasonality into a Strategic Advantage

Rather than seeing seasonal spikes as a challenge, the model used them as signals for media activation:

• ATL campaigns (TV, radio, outdoor) ran year-round to build brand awareness with messaging like: “You missed a great opportunity last semester—don’t make the same mistake again!”
  
• BTL campaigns (social media, search, , online video, email) launched just before intakes to drive immediate conversions.

Accurate Incremental Media Impact Attribution

The model isolated media impact from organic growth by:

• Linking registrations to specific campaigns via post-enrolment surveys.
  
• Allowing multi-channel attribution, so students could select all touchpoints that influenced their decision.
  
• Adjusting for external factors (e.g., competitor ads, economic conditions) to avoid skewed results.

Revealing the Impact of Teaching Resource Cuts

The data showed:

• Reducing tenured staff hurt enrolment growth—fewer courses meant fewer student options.
  
• Diverse course offerings mattered—students wanted both academic advancement (e.g., Master’s degrees) and career-focused programs.
  
• Online course demand was rising, requiring reallocation of teaching resources.

Tracking International Student Sentiment & Policy Shifts

With Australia’s heavy reliance on international enrolments, the model incorporated:

• Visa policy discussions on social media (e.g., Facebook sentiment trends).
  
• Correlations between political uncertainty and enrolment drops.
  
• Competitor strategies for attracting overseas students.

Proven Results: Consistent Growth in Student Registrations

A Collaborative Approach: University, Agency & Data Partner

• University → Set enrolment targets and provided internal data.
  
• Media Agency → Executed campaigns across ATL and BTL channels.
  
• More Than Data → Measured performance, identified optimizations, and ensured efficient spend.

Data-Driven Campaign Adjustments

• Reduced wasted ad spend by 17% through real-time optimizations.
  
• Increased conversion rates by 15% by focusing on high-intent channels.
  
• Improved international enrolment numbers despite policy uncertainties.

Industry Recognition & Long-Term Benefits

• Achieved record enrolment numbers for three consecutive semesters.
  
• Enhanced brand perception as a forward-thinking institution.
  
• Optimized teaching resource allocation based on demand trends.
   
  

Testimonials

University’s Marketing Manager 

"More Than Data’s marketing mix modelling was a game-changer for us. Their ability to decouple media impact from seasonality allowed us to optimize budgets with precision, ensuring we weren’t overspending in quiet periods or missing opportunities during peaks. The insights into competitor movements, teaching resource impacts, and international student trends were invaluable—helping us adjust strategies in an efficient way. Thanks to their work, we saw record enrolment numbers despite a challenging market."

Media Agency Managing the Account

"Working with More Than Data gave us unprecedented clarity on campaign performance. Their high-resolution marketing mix modelling allowed us to prove the ROAS of brand-building campaigns, which many clients undervalue. We could finally show how consistent ATL efforts warmed up audiences, while tactical BTL drives converted them. Their insights helped us outmanoeuvre competitors and deliver measurable growth."